Three Things (11/18)

60M tune in, errors ensue

Buffering … Netflix’s (NFLX) ambitious livestream of the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing match attracted a staggering 60 million households, peaking at 65 million concurrent streams. However, the platform’s biggest live sports event was marred by widespread streaming issues. Buffering and freezing plagued users, with the #NetflixCrash hashtag trending as frustrations mounted. Downdetector reported over 1 million outages across 50 countries, peaking at 530,000 complaints in the U.S. alone.

Netflix has faced similar hurdles before, including a delayed (and somehow more entertaining) “Love is Blind” reunion last year. Despite these setbacks, the platform has been building a portfolio of live events, including NFL games this Christmas. Some fans worry the glitches could resurface. With the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl win last year drawing 123.7 million viewers, Netflix’s infrastructure will need to rise to the challenge.  

Number of Netflix paid subscribers worldwide (in millions)

The fight itself, held at the AT&T Stadium in Texas, was a sluggish spectacle. Paul defeated the legendary Tyson on points, landing 78 hits to Tyson’s 18. Alongside live streams, Netflix partnered with Joe Hand Promotions to distribute the event to 6,000 bars and restaurants, setting a commercial record.  

Streaming platforms like Netflix have revolutionized TV consumption, making “appointment TV”—where viewers watch shows concurrently—largely obsolete. However, in a full-circle twist, these platforms are attempting to revive the collective viewing experience through live events. The Tyson-Paul fight drew roughly 48% of U.S. TV households. For perspective, 58% of Americans with TVs watched Elvis Presley’s comeback TV special in 1968.

Retail sales rise

Spending snapshot … Retail sales gained 0.4% in October, a sign that consumers are still spending despite lingering economic pressures. The monthly increase was driven by a 1.6% jump in auto purchases and a 2.3% surge in electronics and appliance sales. Dining out also saw growth, with spending at bars and restaurants climbing 0.7%.  

Some sectors, however, saw declines. Furniture stores, drugstores, and clothing outlets reported slower sales, a trend partly linked to hurricanes disrupting activity. Grocery sales remained almost flat, reflecting the continued challenge of elevated food prices.  

Still, year-over-year sales growth continues to lag behind historical pace.

Despite these mixed results, analysts are optimistic about the upcoming holiday season. The National Retail Federation forecasts a 2.5% to 3.5% increase in holiday spending over last year. Still, this projection lags behind the 3.9% growth seen in 2023, as shoppers grapple with higher prices.

Related: Despite auto sales seeing a lift, new data from Kelley Blue Book finds that the average price of a new car is nearly $50,000, a 30% increase over five years.

This week on Wall Street

Big dog … The newly anointed world’s largest public company (by market cap), Nvidia, is on deck to share Q3 2024 earnings on Wednesday, which will signal to investors where the AI trade is trending. This week, investors will also get key retail reports from Walmart, Target, and Lowe’s.

Tues. 11/19: Walmart (WMT), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Futu Holdings (FUTU), Valvoline (VVV)

Weds. 11/20: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Target (TGT), TJX Companies Inc (TJX), Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), Snowflake (SNOW), Wix.com (WIX)

Thurs. 11/21: Intuit (INTU), Deere and Co (DE), Baidu Inc (BIDU), Warner Music Group (WMG), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ), Gap Inc (GAP)

IPOs scheduled this week: Self-driving robotaxi company Pony AI (PONY) and mineral development company Brazil Potash Corp (GRO)

One more thing: Palantir’s stock surged 11% to a record high after the company announced it will change its listing from the NYSE to Nasdaq, effective November 26. News of the move boosted the stock as investors anticipated inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, driving buying by index-tracking funds.

Disclosures:

As or writing, NVDA is a holding in Titan's Flagship strategy.

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