Three Things (3/5)

Tariff Tremors

The U.S. formally announced new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, reigniting global trade tensions just as markets were hoping for a calmer 2025. The move imposes a 25% tariff on key goods from Canada and Mexico, while an additional 10% tariff hits a wide range of Chinese products starting this week. Markets reacted swiftly, with the Dow sliding more than 500 points, and companies with complex international supply chains bracing for higher costs and disrupted sourcing.

The current escalation looks less like fleeting brinkmanship and more like a structural shift in trade policy. The scale of these tariffs and breadth of retaliation – hitting all top U.S. trading partners at once – suggest a decisive break from the old free-trade consensus. While President Trump may use hardball tactics as a negotiating ploy, the fallout is feeding a new normal of protectionism that could persist. Investors and firms should treat this not as just another bluff, but as a potential inflection point toward a more divided global trade regime. In other words, this may mark the start of a long trade war era rather than a short-lived spat – a paradigm shift that recalibrates growth, prices, and investment for years to come.

Paramount's Merger Turmoil

Paramount Global's $8 billion merger with Skydance Media faces potential derailment as a Delaware judge considers blocking the deal. The challenge comes from New York City's public pension funds, alleging that Paramount cannot entertain a higher $8.8 billion bid from Project Rise Partners due to an exclusivity agreement with Skydance. Complicating matters, regulatory delays loom, and President Trump's ongoing mediation with Paramount regarding a $20 billion bias claim adds to the uncertainty. This situation opens the door to a potential bidding war, with other prospective bidders waiting in the wings.

What looks like a high-stakes corporate tug-of-war is actually a bigger signal about the future of media consolidation. With legacy media companies under pressure from streaming shifts, rising content costs, and activist shareholders, the Paramount-Skydance mess reveals just how fragile these deals have become. Add in legal challenges over shareholder rights and the rise of private equity bidders waiting to pounce, and this isn’t just about Paramount — it’s about who controls the next era of media power. The outcome could redraw the map for content ownership and reshape the balance of power between public companies, family dynasties, and private capital.

BP's Green U-Turn

In a surprising strategic shift, BP announced it will reduce investments in renewable energy by 70%, refocusing on traditional oil and gas ventures. This pivot comes amid pressures from activist investor Elliott Management, signaling a retreat from BP's earlier commitments to green energy. The company also expanded its board to include members with deep oil and gas expertise, further emphasizing its renewed focus on fossil fuels. This move has sparked debates about the future of energy transition strategies, as it could influence other energy giants contemplating similar shifts amidst fluctuating market dynamics and shareholder pressures.

BP’s move to slash renewable spending is more than a one-off corporate strategy tweak – it’s emblematic of a broader industry recalibration in the energy transition. After a few exuberant years of “green rush,” reality (and math) intervened: oil majors are retrenching to profitability, effectively pausing their clean energy ambitions. This reset suggests that, without stronger economic incentives, Big Oil’s embrace of renewables may remain halting and cautious. In provocative terms, BP’s pivot could be seen as a harbinger of a slower, more difficult path toward decarbonization – one where market-driven climate action stalls and government policy will need to pick up the slack. However, this could also be a transient phase of “two steps back” before the next leap forward, especially if technology and policy eventually make clean energy as attractive to shareholders as oil is today. For now though, BP has signaled that, when forced to choose between green ideals and greenbacks, it will choose the latter – and it appears many of its peers are doing the same.