Three Things (3/10)

Job Market Taps the Brakes

February’s jobs report sent a mixed signal about the strength of the U.S. labor market. Employers added 151,000 jobs, marking the 50th straight month of growth, but the number fell below the 12-month average of 168,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%, the highest since late 2022. Wage growth also showed signs of moderating, suggesting that the hiring frenzy of the post-pandemic years is cooling. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have revised their economic growth forecasts downward, citing weaker labor market momentum as a potential headwind for consumer spending and overall GDP growth.

The job market is shifting gears—and fast. After years of tight labor conditions favoring workers, the pendulum is swinging back toward employers. Slower job growth and cooling wages suggest a new phase of the economic cycle, one where companies regain negotiating power and workers face tougher job markets. The Fed wanted to orchestrate a soft landing, but the bigger question is whether we’re now approaching a stall. If hiring decelerates further, consumer demand—the engine of the U.S. economy—could take a hit, reshaping corporate strategies and investor sentiment in the months ahead. For now, investors and businesses alike should prepare for a reality check: the era of cheap money and labor shortages may be ending.

A Pause, not a Pivot

President Donald Trump has announced a one-month delay in imposing 25% tariffs on a substantial portion of imports from Canada and Mexico that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This decision affects approximately 38% of Canadian and 50% of Mexican imports, providing a brief window for further negotiations addressing U.S. concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl. While some goods have been temporarily exempted, tariffs are set to resume on April 2 if significant progress is not observed.

This isn't a trade war ceasefire—it’s a shot clock. The tariff pause is less about easing economic pressures and more about creating leverage. By delaying penalties rather than scrapping them, the administration is keeping Canada and Mexico on edge while signaling to businesses that uncertainty isn’t going away anytime soon. For corporations relying on North American supply chains, this 30-day breather is a tactical delay, not a long-term solution—manufacturers and retailers still have to factor in potential cost spikes and sourcing shifts. The broader takeaway? This move reinforces a trade strategy driven by unpredictability, where tariffs serve as bargaining chips. The pause shouldn't be confused with a policy pivot - if Canada and Mexico can’t meet U.S. demands in a month, the tariff hammer drops. Companies with exposure to cross-border trade should use this window to reassess risk and shore up contingency plans.

Crude Reality

Oil prices took a sharp dive this week, with Brent crude and WTI crude experiencing their biggest losses in months. WTI crude fell by 4%, as analysts pointed to growing economic uncertainties and shifting OPEC+ strategies. Weakening demand signals from China and Europe, combined with expectations of slower global growth, have put downward pressure on energy markets. While geopolitical tensions have kept oil markets volatile, the latest decline suggests that demand fears are starting to outweigh supply concerns.

Oil isn’t just a commodity—it’s a crystal ball for the global economy, and right now, the forecast looks murky. Falling crude prices aren’t just a win for consumers at the pump—they’re also a warning sign that demand is softening, potentially foreshadowing broader economic trouble ahead. The big question: Is this a temporary blip in the market, or the beginning of a more prolonged downturn in global growth? If China and Europe continue to struggle, expect oil to remain under pressure, reshaping corporate spending and energy investment strategies. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may be forced into tougher supply cuts to counteract the slide. For investors, this moment is a litmus test: if oil prices keep slipping, it could mean the economic slowdown everyone’s been bracing for isn’t just coming—it’s already here.